Русский
Crimean hemorrhagic fever and Astrakhan spotted fever: epidemiology, clinic, system of mathematical models for predicting the manifestations of the epidemic process
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.18565/epidem.2023.13.4.62-72
Ugleva S.V., Akimkin V.G.
Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia
Materials and methods. We used data from primary medical documentation (Form №. 058/u), federal statistical monitoring forms (forms № 2, № 357/u, №. 003/u) for 2000–2020 and materials from long-term observation of disease outbreaks in 11 districts of the Astrakhan Region and the city of Astrakhan. Absolute and intensive morbidity rates depending on age and occupational groups, as well as among urban and rural population were studied. Based on the average long-term morbidity rates of the population, mapping of the region’s territory was carried out. The influence of natural and climatic conditions on the epidemic process of CHF and ASF using meteorological data (amount of precipitation, air temperature, etc.) was assessed.
Results. Mathematical models for predicting the manifestations of the epidemic process of CHF and ASF, taking into account the multifactorial influence of abiotic (average air temperature and amount of precipitation during the seasonal increase in incidence) and biotic (the abundance ratio of ixodid ticks) factors that determine the CHF and ASF incidence rate in the population have been developed. Models with a high (more than 80%) degree of accuracy make it possible to develop a short-term forecast of the epidemic situation depending on the epidemiological risk for territories in a certain period of time.
Conclusion. Based on the results of a long-term comprehensive study of the epidemiological characteristics and clinical manifestations of CHF and ASF, recommendations for optimizing their prevention, based on the use of a mathematical model for predicting the manifestations of the epidemic process were given.
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About the Autors
Svetlana V. Ugleva, МD, Associate Professor, Head, Scientific and Analytical Department; Professor, Department of Epidemiology with Courses in Molecular Diagnostics and Disinfectology, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia; uglevas@bk.ru; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1322-0155
Professor Vasily G. Akimkin, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, MD. Director, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia; vgakimkin@yandex.ru; https://orcid. org/0000-0003-4228-9044.
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