The impact of population size and geographical factors on the incidence of acute respiratory infections in the first half of 2020 in the regions of the Russian Federation during the COVID-19 pandemic


DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.18565/epidem.2021.11.2.6-12

Pshenichnaya N.Yu., Zhuravlev G.Yu., Lizinfeld I.A., Akimkin V.G., Morozova N.S., Maleyev V.V.

1) Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Moscow, Russia; 2) Federal Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia
Objective. To analyze the incidence of acute respiratory infections (ARI) in the first half of 2020 versus the same period of 2016–2019 in the regions of the Russian Federation according to the population size, geographical location, and average annual air temperature.
Materials and methods. The investigators retrospectively analyzed the incidence of COVID-19, acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI), influenza, and community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in Russia. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test and Spearman’s regression and correlation analysis were used to determine the possible association of morbidity with climatogeographic and social characteristics.
Results. The incidence of ARI (including COVID-19) in the first half of 2020 exceeded the average incidence of ARI in the same period of 2016-2019 in 32 regions of the Russian Federation. The maximum excess was observed in the regions located in the immediate vicinity of the People’s Republic of China, the countries of the Middle East and the European Union. These were the Republics of Buryatia (33.78%), Tyva (51.34%), Ingushetia (79.76%), Altai (693.77%), Dagestan (1445.00%), the Trans-Baikal Territory (44.01%), and the Kaliningrad Region (651.98%). The incidence increase was less pronounced (0.01-22.28%) in 25 regions of the Russian Federation, whereas its decrease by 0.55–37.29% was noted in 53 regions. There was a statistically significant relationship between the incidence of ARI and the population size.
Conclusion. In the first half of 2020, the maximum increase in incidence of ARI versus that in other regions was recorded in the border regions. There was a weak significant relationship between the population size and the increased incidence of ARI. There was no association between the incidence increase and the average annual air temperature.
Keywords: climatogeographic characteristics, population size, restrictive measures, border regions, COVID-19, coronavirus infection, ARVI, influenza, Russia
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About the Autors

Professor Natalia Yu. Pshenichnaya, MD, Deputy Director of Clinical and Analytical Work, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia; natalia-pshenichnaya@yandex.ru; http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2570-711X
Grigory Yu. Zhuravlev, Second-Year Resident in Infectious Diseases, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia; grigory.y.zhuravlev@gmail.com; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2467-7000
Irina A. Lizinfeld, Advisor, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia; irinalizinfeld@gmail.com; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8114-1002
Professor Vasily G. Akimkin, MD, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia; crie@pcr.ru; http://orcid.org/ 0000-0003-4228-9044
Nadezhda S. Morozova, Head, Epidemiological Surveillance Department, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia; morozovans@fcgie.ru; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1253-3026
Professor Viktor V. Maleyev, MD, Academician of the of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Expert Advisor for Director, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia; maleyev@pcr.ru; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5748-178X


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