The spread of hepatitis B in the areas of the federal districts of the Russian Federation (computer simulation)


Asatryan M.N., Salman E.R., Nikitina G.Yu., Semenenko T.A.

1N.F. Gamaleya Federal Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology, Ministry of Health of Russia, Moscow; 2S.P. Botkin City Clinical Hospital, Moscow
Objective. To define the practical adequacy of a model and numerical patterns in the prevalence of hepatitis B (HB) in the areas of the federal districts of the Russian Federation.
Materials and methods. To create an epidemiological model of hepatitis B, the investigators used the materials of scientific literature on its pathogenesis and epidemiology, the data of the Federal State Statistics Service on population size and those from the Federal Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Welfare, on HB morbidity in the period 1997-2012, as well as information of the Reference Center for Viral Hepatitis on HB virus transmission routes and vaccination in different age groups in the Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in 2009-2012. The epidemiological model of HB was based on the mathematical theory of epidemics. The model was realized as the computer program HBV-escapemut» by the computer simulation technology EpidMod for Windows developed at the N.F. Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, Ministry of Health of Russia.
Results. The use of the model could establish numerical patterns of HB prevalence in the areas of the Federal Districts and in Russia as a whole. The identifiable parameters were found to have a slight spread in values for the areas of 7 federal districts: the proportion of the population most at risk of HB (risk groups) in different federal districts was 10-13% of the population aged over 14 years in a given area; and λ1 (the average frequency of HB virus transmission) was estimated within the range of 0.29–0.314. The findings and the similarity in the trend in the incidence of acute HB in the areas of the federal districts are indicative of the unity and synchronism of influencing factors that are responsible for the prevalence of HB in different homogeneous population groups most at risk of its infection.
Conclusion. Our investigations have indicated that the elaborated computer-based epidemiological model of HB is reliable and adequately reflects the manifestations of an epidemical process of HB in the areas of the Federal Districts and Russia as a whole, which may predict with a high degree of certainty. Consideration of the new data on the prevalence of vaccine-induced escape mutants of HB virus in the areas of the federal districts will be able to predict medium-term trends in their prevalence with a higher degree of certainty, which is essential for evidence-based counteraction planning.

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About the Autors


For correspondence:
Asatryan Marina Norairovna, Cand. Med. Sci.; Researcher, N.F. Gamaleya Federal Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology, Ministry of Health of Russia
Address: 18, Gamaleya St., Moscow 123098
Telephone: +7(499) 193-43-85
E-mail: m_asatryan@mail.ru


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