Conуugacy of epidemic processes of leptospirosis and HFRS on the example of Gomel Region


DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.18565/epidem.2024.14.4.26-32

Mamchits L.P., Tumash O.L.

Gomel State Medical University, Gomel, Republic of Belarus
Objective. Evaluation of the mechanisms of development and manifestation of the epidemic process of zoonotic infections (leptospirosis and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, HFRS) during their joint spread in the Gomel Region.
Materials and methods. The data from the state statistical reporting «Report on individual infectious, parasitic diseases and their carriers» and case histories of patients with leptospirosis and HFRS hospitalized in the Gomel Regional Infectious Diseases Clinical Hospital in the period 2002–2023 were used. In the course of the retrospective analysis, the trends of long-term dynamics of morbidity were determined using the least squares method for a first-order parabola; to identify cyclicity, the indicators and normalized morbidity indicators were approximated using the least squares method for a sixth-order parabola.
Results. The incidence of leptospirosis and HFRS was recorded annually. A clear wave-like nature of the epidemic process of leptospirosis and HFRS and antiphase epidemic processes were established, which may indicate the presence of competitive interactions between the pathogens of these infections and the cyclicity of morbidity. The greatest influence on the increase in morbidity is exerted by environmental conditions that change the population size of infection sources.
Conclusion. In order to control natural focal zoonotic infections, it is necessary to compile their comprehensive ecological and parasitological characteristics and carry out monitoring using modern digital geoinformation technologies.

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About the Autors


Lyudmila P. Mamchits, Cand. Med. Sci., Associate Professor, Associate Professor at the Department of Environmental and Preventive Medicine, Gomel State Medical University, Gomel, Republic of Belarus; luda-gomel77@list.ru; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3660-030X
Oksana L. Tumash, Associate Professor, Associate Professor at the Department of Infectious Diseases, Gomel State Medical University, Gomel, Republic of Belarus; tumash_ox@mail.ru; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1020-3704


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