Русский
Assessment of social and economic impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Russia
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.18565/epidem.2024.14.3.13-20
Nikolaeva N.A., Ladnaia N.N., Pomazkin D.V., Korotkikh A.M., Sanishvili T.T.
1) Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia; 2) Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia; 3) NPF GAZFOND, Moscow, Russia
Materials and methods. A methodology for modeling a comprehensive assessment of the socio-economic consequences of the HIV epidemic in Russia has been developed. The model is based on statistical data characterizing the trends in the development of the HIV epidemic in the Russian Federation. The socio-economic costs associated with HIV infection were estimated based on actual costs provided by the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. During the modeling, variant demographic assessments in accordance with 4 scenarios of the situation development depending on the level of coverage with treatment of people living with HIV (PLHIV) were made, and a forecast of socio-economic losses from HIV/AIDS in Russia was constructed.
Results. Due to the increase in the total number of PLHIV, the socio-economic losses from the HIV epidemic in Russia are growing. The total costs of the consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation on the implementation of measures to counter the spread of HIV infection (taking into account inter-budget transfers from the federal budget) increased from 20.3 billion rubles in 2010 to 63.4 billion rubles in 2019. In 2019, the structure of costs was dominated by financing the purchase of antiretroviral drugs (46.3%) and the provision of medical care (30.1%), the proportion of costs on HIV prevention was insignificant (0.7%). According to the estimates obtained, the spread of HIV/AIDS in the territory of the Russian Federation can lead to significant demographic losses, estimated at 0.7–1.8 million people in 2019–2050, depending on the scenario.
Conclusion. The total costs of the consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation on the implementation of measures to counter the spread of HIV infection increased by 3.1 times in 2019 compared to 2010. According to the assessment results, the implementation of scenarios providing for the coverage with antiretroviral therapy of 90-95% of HIV-infected people in Russia will save 800,000 – 1 million lives by 2050 and reduce the national economic burden of the HIV epidemic from approximately 4% to 3% of GDP in cumulative total. The process of HIV/AIDS spread has a high inertia, and the preventive measures taken today will have an impact with a noticeable delay.
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About the Autors
Natalya A. Nikolaeva, Cand. Econ. Sci., Head, Social Policy Department, Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia; iv_na@mail.ru; https://orcid.org/0009-0002-4411-8767
Natalia N. Ladnaia, Cand. Biol. Sci., Senior Researcher, Central Research Institute of Epidemiology, Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Well-Being, Moscow, Russia; ladnaia@hotmail.com; htpp://orcid.org/0000-0003-2994-151X
Dmitry V. Pomazkin, Cand. Econ. Sci., Head, Development Programs Department, NPF GAZFOND, Moscow, Russia; dmitri.pomazkin@mail.ru; https://orcid.org/0009-0000-2766-7807
Anna M. Korotkikh, Leading Analyst, Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia; annamk3781@gmail.com; https://orcid.org/0009-0007-9435-2670
Tamriko T. Sanishvili, Leading Analyst, Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia; tamriko.sanishvili@yandex.ru; https://orcid.org/0009-0005-7383-1627
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